Wednesday, June 23, 2010

World Cup Bet of the Day: Australia - Serbia

A spicy game awaits with two teams that need to win...


Group D remains wide open with both of these teams in with a shot of progressing to the last 16. The odds and form favour Serbia, while Australia must win and rely on some prayers to emulate their feat of four years ago.

Australia were thumped by Germany and looked to be on the first plane back down under. A morale-boosting point was earned against Ghana, where once again they had to play with ten men. This says more about the limitations of Ghana than Australia being any great shakes. This team lacks discipline and have already clocked up two red cards and 36 fouls so far. Victory is a must for the Socceroos but they will still need some fortune to smile on them to go through. 


Serbia let themselves down in the first game against Ghana, conceding a daft penalty to go down 1-0. They then promptly did the same thing against Germany but Lukas Podolski made a hash of the spot-kick and the Serbs grabbed the three points. Although it was a decent win Germany bossed long stages of the game, having more possession and shots. A win will guarantee their place in the last 16.

Australia Tips
Given their poor disciplinary record the Socceroos earning the first card at 2.35 is worth a flutter. The Aussies welcome back Tim Cahill and he is well priced at 4.0 to score at anytime. Brett Holman, who was immense against Ghana, is decent value at 4.33 to score at anytime.

Serbia Tips
Raddy Antic has a fully fit squad to pick from and there are several goalscoring options. Milos Krasic excelled against Germany and is 4.50 to score during the 90 minutes. German match winner Milan Jovanovic is also a decent price at 3.25 to score at anytime.

Betting Verdict
Serbia's winning odds at 1.84 are well worth snapping as they are the superior side and need to win to guarantee their last 16 place. Between them these sides have given away three bad penalties so the chances of another one today are too good not to snap up at 3.75. Also, they've notched up three red cards between them so another early bath tonight for somebody at 3.75 is worth considering. Over 4.5 cards at 1.83 looks a banker as between them these teams have already earned 13 cautions.

Outside Value Bet
Serbia to win the first half at 2.43. Australia were battered into submission by Germany in the first game and Serbia should start with a similar high tempo tonight. At better than even money this is a great value outside bet.  

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